Value bets are a hugely popular strategy that punters lean on to try and get an edge with their sports betting. This is a betting strategy where you are directly taking on the bookmaker because it involves getting into scrutiny of their odds.

The purpose of looking for value bets is to try and find market options that have been underpriced by the bookmaker. Naturally, the bookmaker should always have the edge because they are the ones setting the lines.

But the bookies can’t be right 100% of the time with their odds, and successful bettors not only carefully study  Betwinner bonus terms and conditions  but also always exploit opportunities when they see selections priced for less than what they may be worth. It’s a skilled area but also one that can be profitable.

What Does a Value Bet Mean?

The simple way to look at a Value Bet is it being a quote that is at a longer price than you would expect it to be. Think of a darts match between two top-ten seeds, but the underdog has been quoted at 2/1. That underdog player however has been performing well in the tournament, having already knocked over another high-quality opponent in the draw.

They also have an even head-to-head record against the match favourite, who has yet to meet any player of note in the competition. So you may have expected to see that player at maybe 11/8 or Even Money. That could be a value bet.

The interesting thing about the value bet is that it’s based on the bettor’s perception of a market. Implied Probability is the key factor here. If you think that the darts player has at least a 40% chance of winning the match, then they should have been priced at 6/4. But at 2/1 that represents the bookie thinking that they only have a 33% chance of winning.

Forming a Strategy

When it comes to a value bet strategy, you don’t want to fall into the trap of switching it around too much. It’s important to give a strategy time to work over a longer period to gather some data on it.

Write down every bet and its result, so that you can see areas like which price range has been returning the best results for you. Stick to the same markets with the same stake to get a complete understanding of the picture. But also be ready to self-assess. Look at the results and see where things can be improved.

Cash out Strategy

There doesn’t have to be a reliance on letting a bet ride to the final whistle. A great thing about Value Bets is that you can take it on with a pre-match wager, but watch and wait for a time to cash out. If things are shaping up well enough through the early stages of the match, then you can always settle a value bet early to lock in some profit from the selection.

Reference Games Strategy

Look back at other games for reference by noting the odds. For Premier League football matches, for example, there are different types of match scenarios that crop up. It could be a Top 6 team playing a bottom 6 team, two mid-table teams together, or two relegation-threatened teams meeting.

From studying the type of fixture, you can get a feel for what kind of odds you will expect to see for future bets on similar contests.

It could be assessed that narrow away favourites in matches that are expected to be close, like a top-six clash, will be around a 2.2 and 2.3 quote. If you therefore see an away team in a similar match perhaps at 2.5 or 2.6 then you will know to go and investigate that game in further detail.

Confirm Your Value Bet

You can’t get into value bets without looking at stats and research. It can be a time-consuming, research-based system. But with every step of the journey, you will put yourself in a position to learn and grow.

The more you study a league table and statistics, the stronger your skill of spotting value bets will be. A winning streak isn’t just a winning streak for example. You have to look at the quality of opposition a team beat during that streak, motivation and where the fixture was played.

Learn how to look deeper into form, after you think you have spotted a value bet, to try and confirm whether it’s worth taking on. Remember that you are looking for opportunities where a bookmaker may have underestimated the odds. It happens, but it’s down to your skill to exploit them.